Scenarios: Ukraine 2040
About the Project
"Scenarios: Ukraine 2040" is a strategic foresight study initiated by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in collaboration with the British All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations. The project was implemented with the support of UNDP in Ukraine and international experts from the EU, Oxford, and Stanford.
Goal
- To develop scenarios for Ukraine's development until 2040 after the full-scale war.
- To help parliament make informed decisions under conditions of uncertainty.
- To identify strategic risks, opportunities, biases, and implications for public policy.
Methodology
The project is based on scenario planning methods — an approach that allows modeling alternative paths of the future.
Key research stages:
- Horizon scanning and environment analysis
- Identification of drivers of change
- Scenario development through workshops
- Assessment of strategic implications
The research involved a Futures Intelligence Team (FIT) — an interdisciplinary group of 23 experts, and citizens of Ukraine through the ForesightBot chatbot.
Scenarios
The study describes 4 possible scenarios for Ukraine's development until 2040:
- Slow slide into world war — The West reduces support, Russia captures part of Ukraine, the conflict escalates to a global level.
- Slide into autocracy — After victory — growth of authoritarianism, corruption, and new oligarchs. Distancing from the EU and NATO.
- Decentralized digital survival — Prolonged war leads to mass migration to villages, development of eco-technological communities and local self-governance.
- Complex work of unity — Ukraine wins, reclaims occupied territories, reintegrates, strengthens the European vector, and promotes democratization in the region.
Strategic Conclusions
Each scenario contains challenges and opportunities for long-term policy. They help to "stress-test" current government plans and adjust them according to potential developments.